Title: The Prigozhin/Shoigu Showdown
Topics: civil war, Russia
Date: 30 December 2022
Source: Retrieved on 24th June 2023 from avtonom.org
Notes: Original translation.

The fact that the power struggle began while Putin was still alive is a bad thing indeed. While the Russian people wait for the old dictator to die, he may get a strong successor and then Russia will have another two dozen years like this to look forward to, which the people simply cannot survive. It is already on its last legs.

Another thing is if Putin dies before his successor is determined. Then there is a chance that the people will take advantage of the weakening infighting at the top and emerge as an independent force. Or several independent forces. It will be a turmoil from which it is not yet clear what will grow, but at least bad things can grow as well as good. Then again, it is not clear whether it will, given how many active people have fled, but it may be, given that not everyone can flee, and some of those who have fled may not mind coming back to fight for a better life. At any rate, there is some chance here.

But if the successor is identified and entrenched, there is no chance. Or almost none. Let’s hope he doesn’t have time to make up his mind. Or at least not in time to establish himself.